Top Takeaways from ASHA Annual Meeting, eCap25 and MBA CREF Conference

The VIUM Capital team brings a cautiously optimistic view of the seniors housing and healthcare industry in 2025. Our team members attended the 2025 ASHA Annual Meeting, eCap25 Summit, and MBA CREF Conference and noted insightful takeaways. Learn more from our experiences at these events.

American Seniors Housing Association (ASHA) Annual meeting

Kass Matt and Grant Blosser recap some interesting points of discussion from this year’s ASHA Annual Meeting. Some standout topics included:

Major Themes and Discussion Points

This was the most heavily-attended ASHA meeting on record, which underscores the optimism returning to the seniors housing sector with key standouts:

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• Optimism coming back to the market
• Labor and capital markets continue to be key headwinds
• New construction financing is still especially difficult to find
• Well capitalized owners are looking to acquire existing assets
• Industry is keenly watching the new administration and expects regulatory change

Thoughts on the Change of Leadership in Washington

Robert Kaplan, the former President of the Dallas Federal Reserve Bank, was the keynote speaker. He outlined five points to watch as the new administration looks to put their stamp on the US economy:

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• Government spending: should decrease, on aggregate. The administration wants to let the private sector drive the economy. This should have positive effects on the US 10-year treasury rate.
• Energy costs: The Trump administration is very focused on bringing down the cost of energy.
• Regulatory review: a focus on decreasing regulatory burdens.
• Immigration: will be curtailed. This could have implications for the workforce (i.e. fewer people = tighter labor market).
• Tariffs: President Trump has already shown a willingness to use tariffs as a bargaining chip.

Expected Impacts for the Seniors Housing Industry in 2025

The seniors housing industry anticipates a boost from lower interest rates and reduced regulatory burdens, fostering transaction growth. However, potential challenges from a tighter labor market due to immigration restrictions may temper the optimism.

Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) Finance Convention and Expo

This year, VIUM Capital was represented by Steve Kennedy, who serves nationally on the MBA Commercial and Multifamily Board of Governors (COMBOG), and Alison Lemle, who serves nationally as President of the Healthcare Mortgagee Advisory Council (HMAC), at the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) Finance Convention and Expo. There were some valuable insights that have been brought back and applied to our day-to-day operations. Here are some noteworthy takeaways.

Key Ideas Surrounding the Changing Economy, Regulatory, and Political Landscape

• The need for stability, not volatility; the Trump administration’s actions within the first three weeks (tariffs, deportations, etc.) are fueling the latter; do not expect this volatility to decline anytime soon given the administration’s goals and MO.
• Expect a focus on decreased regulations and costs, and increased development, including affordable housing development by leveraging tax credits.
• Limited expectation of further Federal interest rate cuts (maybe one in the summer) given relatively low unemployment and still slightly high inflation.
• Long-term rates expected to remain in current range within a band of 100 bps volatile swings; US debt to GDP is near 100% and expected to continue to rise, applying upward pressure on long-term rates.

Thoughts on This Year’s CRE financing

• Small and regional banks are lending more than large, national banks.
• Increased property insurance expenses are the largest concern for borrowers (some borrowers are electing for expensive lender forced placed coverage); labor is the second largest concern.
• Increased General Liability insurance expenses is forecasted to be the next material expense pressure.
• Expect lenders to not be providing as many extensions to maturing loans, thereby forcing payoffs through refinancing and/or some debt paydown through equity.
• Expect more support and potential expansion of Opportunity Zones; HUD Secretary Scott Turner was the architect of OZ’s within Trump 1.0; this is promising for seniors housing and healthcare borrowers utilizing the HUD 232 program where projects located in OZ’s can skip the growing queue (currently 3-4 months); HUD 232 queue only expected to grow given shrinking size of government staff and increased demand for HUD permanent financing.
• The HUD 232 program is forecasted to return to pre-pandemic volume (>$4B; up from $3B).
• The Trump administration is expected to privatize GSE’s (FNMA & Freddie), but this will take a couple years and must be done carefully.
• Overall the CRE market is moderately bullish for 2025 and 2026, assuming 10 year Treasury remains below 5%.
• Keynote speaker, tennis legend Andre Agassi, encouraged attendees to innovate around one’s passion. He is doing that around his charter school development fund activities. Lenders can do that with regards to providing capital to the multifamily and commercial CRE space.

Expected Impacts for the Seniors Housing and Healthcare Industry in 2025

Seniors housing borrowers can expect increased access to financing through smaller regional banks, growth in HUD 232 loans, and expanded Opportunity Zone support. Rising insurance costs and limited loan extensions may create hurdles, while a moderately bullish market outlook depends on stable long-term Treasury rates.

eCap Healthcare Summit 2025

Tony Ruberg, Steven Munn, and Chris Blanda represented our team at eCap Healthcare Summit 2025. As our industry looks ahead, there are a variety of forecasts being shared. Here are key insights from our team. 

Forecasted Healthcare Transactions in 2025?

• Continued activity on the SNF side as Medicaid reimbursement has helped projects re-stabilize and occupancy is back to pre-pandemic levels across the country.
• While M&A activity will remain strong as more institutional capital enters the space and regional owner/operators grow within their markets, refinances/recapitalizations will also pick up. Acquisition loans from 2021 and 2022 will start to mature and may need just a little more time to stabilize prior to going to the permanent markets. On the flip side, some owner/operators that acquired distressed assets at a low basis during the pandemic have been able to drive strong performance and may have experienced positive Medicaid reimbursement changes, which have allowed them to unlock value creation that they will look to recap prior to going to the permanent markets.
• HUD LEAN 232 volume will again grow in 2025 after a strong 2024, as projects reach takeout levels and owner/operators seek the fixed-rate, non-recourse financing option during the current rate environment. With current economic data suggesting only one rate cut during the next 12 months, HUD continues to remain an attractive outlet for long-term financing, reducing floating interest rate exposure. 

Expected Impacts for the Seniors Housing and Healthcare Industry in 2025

Healthcare transactions are set to remain robust with strong M&A activity, increased refinances, and Medicaid-driven stabilization. The HUD LEAN 232 program will see growing demand as owner/operators pursue fixed-rate financing amidst a stable economic outlook.

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At VIUM Capital, we're committed to staying ahead of the curve and delivering tailored solutions that meet the evolving needs of our clients. Reach out today and discover how we can turn these takeaways into actionable strategies for your seniors housing and healthcare commercial real estate assets. Let’s work together.